Management Science, 2024

with Mark Jansen and Hieu Nguyen

Journal of Finance, 2020

with John M. Griffin

Selected Media Coverage:

Review of Financial Studies, 2018

with John M. Griffin

Selected Media Coverage:

with Mark Jansen, Samuel Kruger, and Gonzalo Maturana

More than 45 million U.S. adults lack traditional credit histories, creating a gap that alternative financial service data, such as payday lending records, could potentially fill. Using the staggered adoption of the largest alternative credit database, we examine the data’s impact on automotive lenders in the subprime auto loan market. Alternative credit scores predict loan performance, leading lenders to offer better loan terms to higher-scoring borrowers. However, a history of using alternative financial services, even with relatively high alternative credit scores, comes with significant downsides: borrowers with payday loan histories experience higher delinquency rates, face higher interest rates, and reduced loan origination rates after the adoption of alternative credit data. A flexible machine learning model indicates that only 3.28% of alternative financial service users possess sufficiently strong credit histories to offset the stigma of using these services. Consequently, use of alternative credit data limits credit availability and raises traditional loan costs for most users of alternative financial services. Alternative financial services are used more frequently in lower-income areas and communities with higher shares of black residents, raising concerns that the adoption of alternative credit data may have disproportionate negative impacts on these populations. Our results contribute to the policy debate on credit data, consumer privacy, and financial inclusion.

 

with Victor Lyonnet and Shaojun Zhang

We analyze 5,230 expert network calls using large language models (LLMs) to study how early-stage investors conduct due diligence. Applying a novel LLM-based topic modeling approach combined with SHAP analysis, we find that firms receiving expert calls have 44% higher odds of securing investment in the next quarter. The predictive content of these calls varies systematically with both discussion topics and firm characteristics: Positive discussions about technology integration and customer acquisition further increase deal odds by 31% and 15%, respectively. These effects are concentrated among younger firms, suggesting that expert validation can at least partially substitute for traditional financial metrics. However, while positive signals predict investment decisions, negative assessments on risk management are associated with 0.2 standard deviation lower long-term firm performance. This divergence between what predicts deals versus ultimate success is consistent with investors optimizing for power-law returns rather than success rates.

 

 

with Brad Cannon and John Lynch

This study examines the relationship between vocal masculinity and CEO selection, utilizing a dataset of over 5,900 executive voices. Consistent with theory on how increased masculinity enhances the perception of females, we find that female executives are more likely to be selected as CEO if their voice is more masculine, while the opposite is true for males. This effect is amplified in firms with greater entrenchment provisions and varies based on the board’s gender composition. Contingent on being hired, however, both male and female executives with higher vocal masculinity are better compensated. While upper echelon theory highlights the characteristics of successful managers, our paper shows that boards may rely on uninformative physical signals when making hiring and compensation decisions.

In Stiglitz, J.E., Guzman, M. (eds) Contemporary Issues in Microeconomics, 2016

with James K Galbraith, Béatrice Halbach, Aleksandra Malinowska, Wenjie Zhang